Q: What might bring an end to this bubble?Ī: Markets peak when you are as happy as you can get, and a near-perfect economy is extrapolated into the indefinite future. My favorite metric is price-to-sales: What you find is that even the cheapest parts of the market are way more expensive than in 2000. Q: What is your take on equity valuations now?Ī: Looking at most measures, the market is more expensive than in 2000, which was more expensive than anything that preceded it. The scale of these things is so much bigger than in 1929 or in 2000. You see it when the markets are on the front pages instead of the financial pages, when the news is full of stories of people getting cheated, when new coins are being created every month. Q: So if we were already in a bubble then, where do things stand right now?Ī: Bubbles are unbelievably easy to see it's knowing when the bust will come that is trickier. They said my ears were too big, and that I needed to be locked up in an old-folks home. Waves of Bitcoin freaks attacked me in every way possible. Q: When your letter of warning came out, what was the response like?Ī: I got a lot of pushback. Grantham spoke with Reuters about this moment of market history. Six months later, the stock market is starting to show some cracks.
In January Grantham wrote an investor letter, "Waiting For the Last Dance," about an inflating bubble that "could well be the most important event of your investing lives." In case you did not know where this is headed: He says we are in a bubble right now. Grantham studies classic ones like 1929, but - now in his eighties - he has also lived through (and called) numerous modern booms and busts, including the dot-com wreckage in 2000, the bull market peak in 2008 and the bear market low in 2009. The chairman of the board of famed asset managers GMO is a certified bubble-ologist, fascinated by how and why bubbles emerge. NEW YORK, July 20 (Reuters) - In this manic era of meme stocks, cryptocurrencies and real-estate bidding wars, studying the history of financial markets might seem a little dry and old-fashioned.
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